Introduction - What is this?

Every year, around the end of December (always after the last FOMC), I create a list of trade ideas for the coming year. Some I already have on, some I am planning on entering within the next few weeks, some never get put on. 

The point of the exercise is less about finding a bunch of surefire high conviction plays (if I could pull 24 high conviction trade ideas in a month I’d either be a billionaire or way too convinced on way too many things) and more about preparation..

Are they all great ideas? Of course not, there’s 24 of them. But they’re good to have in your back pocket as the year plays out, or maybe they’ll start a thought process that results in something you otherwise would not have happened upon. Think of this more like a watchlist for interesting things than a list of portfolio positions. 

The first time I shared this process publicly was here on my twitter account at the end of 2022. I’m glad I did this, because I think it shows the potential of having a deep back catalog of trades ready for various scenarios. 

We’ll go through the performance of the trades listed for 2023 at the end, so you can get an idea of what this exercise accomplishes (and what the hit rate is like). To preface, however, the main purpose here is preparation. Most of these ideas are things that are suited for reacting to developments throughout the year, or perhaps useful if current trends continue or even just solely presented to put something in front of you that you wouldn’t otherwise look at.

It’s the end of the year, an absolutely crazy year for that matter. 

And that, of course, means we get to prepare to do it all again but differently. Here’s what I’m thinking…